Indian stock markets are set to be influenced by ongoing developments in the US-Iran conflict, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the latest quarterly earnings reports from major corporates, with foreign investor activity also playing a crucial role.
Indian stock markets are poised for volatility this week, driven primarily by the outcomes of five state assembly elections, ongoing high crude oil prices amid West Asia tensions, and the release of Q4 corporate earnings, according to market analysts.
Foreign investors have aggressively sold off Indian equities, withdrawing over 48,213 crore in the first 10 days of April, following a record 1.17 lakh crore outflow in March, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising crude oil prices, and global inflation concerns.
Increased input costs due to geopolitical conflict in West Asia and unseasonal rain in March negatively impacted volumes of consumer durables makers, particularly air conditioners, in Q4FY26, leading to projected declines in EBITDA and APAT despite revenue growth.
IT major Wipro reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 3,501.8 crore for March quarter FY26, a 1.89 per cent decrease from the previous year, amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company also announced a mega Rs 15,000 crore share repurchase programme.
Wipro reported Q4FY26 IT services revenue of $2.6 billion, a modest 0.2 per cent Q-o-Q constant currency growth, with adjusted operating profit margin beating estimates at 17.2 per cent. The company announced a significant share buyback of ~15,000 crore, but faces near-term growth challenges, particularly in the BFSI segment, and has issued a soft Q1FY27 revenue guidance.
Indian stock markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices this week, with analysts also highlighting the influence of the rupee-dollar trend, foreign investor activity, and upcoming inflation data.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Bajaj Auto is set to launch new Pulsar motorcycles in the 125cc and 150-250cc segments in Q2 FY27, aiming to capitalise on the upcoming festival season surge. This move follows strong growth in the 150cc-plus segment, where refreshed Pulsar models already account for over 50 per cent of Bajaj's sales.
Share markets will have only three trading days this week with Monday and Wednesday being holidays due to general elections in Mumbai and Maharashtra Day, respectively.
Dabur India's shares rose 3.7 per cent after reporting in-line Q4FY26 results, driven by a healthy 10 per cent growth in its India business, despite some analysts remaining cautious about future execution.
Dabur India's stock has fallen over 17 per cent since the start of the Iran war, driven by concerns over a weak monsoon, the West Asian crisis, and rising input costs, which are expected to impact the company's revenues and margins, particularly affecting its significant rural sales and international markets.
In the December quarter, Sensex earnings had contracted 5 per cent.
While Wipro will announce its fourth quarter (Q4) results along with annual financial statements on April 15, market leader TCS will hold its board meet the next day (April 16) for approval of its financial statements. Infosys is yet to inform investors the date it will announce its Q4 earnings.
Stock markets will be mainly driven by quarterly earnings by corporates, foreign fund flows and global trends this week, analysts said.
Wipro on Wednesday reported a 25.9 per cent year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit for the March quarter to Rs 3,569.6 crore, but warned of a weak quarter ahead with up to 3.5 per cent expected drop in IT services revenue for Q1FY26, amid global uncertainties. CEO and Managing Director Srini Pallia said clients remain cautious in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty.
India's aviation sector is facing fresh turbulence, with rising fuel costs, the Ministry of Civil Aviation's free-seat directive, and geopolitical disruptions in West Asia clouding near-term earnings visibility.
10 stocks from the Nifty 200 index that offer good growth potential and scope to deliver decent returns from current levels, based on brokerage estimates.
The domestic stock market this week would monitor the geopolitical developments after India and Pakistan reached an understanding to stop military actions, analysts said. Moreover, macroeconomic data announcements, Q4 earnings, trading activity of foreign investors and global market trends are also likely to influence sentiments, traders said.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
Earnings growth in the early-bird sample has been driven by banks and iron & steel companies.
Equity markets may witness a gradual up-move this week with some volatility as both election and earnings season are nearing their end, analysts said, adding that global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would hold significance in dictating investors' sentiment. Benchmark indices, which had a record-breaking rally last week, would also track global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend. The monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday may also fuel volatility in markets.
IT services firm HCLTech on Monday reported a 11.2 per cent decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,076 crore in the October-December quarter of FY26.
Movement in the equity market this week will be guided by a host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Stocks markets concluded the last week on a subdued note, as investors grappled with global uncertainties.
Among the Sensex firms, Infosys, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, HDFC, Tata Consultancy Services, Sun Pharma and ICICI Bank were the biggest winners. On the other hand, PowerGrid, NTPC, Nestle, UltraTech Cement, State Bank of India and ITC were among the laggards.
The ongoing fourth quarter earnings season, global factors and macroeconomic data would guide the trends in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Markets would also take cues from trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude. "Domestically, the next batch of Q4 earnings reports will drive stock-specific movements, Hero MotoCorp, Larsen & Toubro, BPCL, State Bank of India, Eicher Motors and Tata Motors are some of the big names in the list and the next phase of voting," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
The early bird results for the January-March 2022 quarter (Q4FY22) hint at a slowdown in corporate sector growth in the upcoming quarters. The combined net sales of the 81 early bird companies in the Business Standard sample were up 15.1 per cent year-on-year in Q4FY22; this was less than the 15.9 per cent YoY jump reported in Q3FY22. The slowdown could be much stronger for the domestic market-focused companies, including those in the banking, finance, and insurance (BFSI) space.
The earnings of India Inc hit a record high in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4), compared with their poor showing in the previous two quarters of the financial year. The rise in earnings, however, is exclusively led by banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) companies. A better-than-expected showing by banks and non-bank lenders in Q4FY23 more than compensated for the earnings contraction in the non-BFSI space.
Quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and other global trends will be the major driving factors for determining movement in the domestic equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, factors like trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading.
iPhone maker Apple hit an all-time revenue record in India during September quarter, marking a strong growth streak in the world's second largest smartphone market where the tech titan has been deepening retail footprint and local manufacturing.
SBI Cards & Payment Services reported mixed results for the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY24. While it managed to deliver strong earnings growth, it saw a perceptible decline in net interest margin (NIM) and suffered deteriorating asset quality. Taken together, the market was disappointed with the share dropping 3.5 per cent.
HDFC Bank's January-March quarter result, which came in-line with expectations, failed to enthuse investors. The reason? The management's decision to abstain from providing any specific growth guidance, and analysts' expectations of an arduous road to recovery. Analysts believe the path to normalisation of several growth metrics is unlikely to be a straightforward one, and the road to balance sheet realignment may be long.
From the Sensex shares, IndusInd Bank jumped 7.12 per cent. Axis Bank, Adani Ports, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India and ITC were also among the gainers. Maruti, Infosys, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards.
The last batch of quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will guide the equity market movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Volatility may continue amid investors' cautious approach in the election season. Markets will remain closed on Monday due to the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai.
Despite a healthy performance in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25), the stock of India's largest listed pharma company, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma), was under pressure on Friday due to a muted guidance. The company has guided for a high single-digit revenue growth for FY26, which is below what the Street was working with.
Food delivery aggregator Swiggy saw its loss widen for the fourth quarter (January-March) of financial year 2024-25 (Q4FY25). The firm reported a consolidated loss of Rs 1,081.1 crore for the quarter, compared to a loss of Rs 554.7 crore in the corresponding quarter of FY24.
The Indian markets have seen a good run in the last three months with the S&P BSE Sensex rising around 7 per cent and the Nifty50 moving up 7.5 per cent. The next leg of the market rally from here on, analysts suggest, will be driven by a growth in corporate earnings over the next few quarters. That said, they do not expect material / sharp downgrades to India Inc's earnings estimates despite headwinds for the economy.
With the last quarter of 2023-24 (FY24) expected to have been soft owing to lower discretionary spend and macro uncertainty, many are hoping FY25 will be a year of recovery for the information-technology (IT) industry. The fourth quarter, January-March, is considered soft, and will continue to see the headwinds the sector has been facing. And the sector has entered the new financial year on a weak footing. Analysts are expecting Tier-I firms to report sequential growth of -1 per cent to 1.5 per cent and midcap players' growth may range between 0.7 per cent and 4 per cent.
Stock markets will remain closed on Tuesday
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports jumped over 5 per cent. NTPC, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Zomato, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank and Maruti were among the other big gainers. From the 30-share pack, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and UltraTech Cement were the other laggards.
